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Petrosol
Energy Market Analysis
March 30th, 2007
Issue 104
Petrosol International Inc.
800-698-1903
Some content provided to Petrosol by Quadra Energy Trading, Inc.
| Market Information |
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Propane will
likely continue it’s Bull-run well into April this year, assisting it was
the release of last week’s inventory draw of .6 million barrels, putting
current inventories 11.5% below the 5-yr average, a level not seen in
several years. In oil markets, much of the attention on the weekly data is
focused on the change in inventories for crude oil, gasoline, and distillate
fuel, as well as, demand. Two additional statistics we should closely watch
over the next several weeks are crude oil inputs to refineries and total
gasoline imports. One of the main reasons why gasoline markets have
tightened over the last several weeks is the reduction in gasoline
production stemming from refinery maintenance and unplanned outages. March
crude oil inputs have been well below 15 million compared to the average of
15.2 million / day.
Another
reason why gasoline markets have tightened, causing gasoline prices to rise,
is a reduction in total gasoline imports. Total gasoline imports averaged
over 1.1 million barrels per day in 2006, but until last week, they had not
been above 1 million barrels per day for the previous seven weeks. This is
not a comfortable trend to be setting as we enter the peak of the drive
season and gasoline demand. |
| Market Driver |
Summary |
Affect on Propane |
|
Conway & Mt Belvieu Propane Prices
Friday 3/9
12:00 pm |
|
Friday, March 30th |
Friday, March 23rd |
| Conway (spot
price) |
$1.0600 |
$1.0200 |
| Mt Belvieu
(spot price) |
$1.0850 |
$1.0600 |
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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March 2007 |
March 2007 |
March 2006 |
| |
OPIS Avg.
(Current week) |
OPIS Avg.
(Previous week) |
OPIS Avg. |
| Conway |
$1.0020 |
$0.9918 |
$0.8998 |
| Mt Belvieu |
$1.0350 |
$1.032 |
$0.9255 |
|
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U.S.
Propane Inventories |
Following
the surprisingly sharp drop in propane inventories from the prior
week, propane markets returned to more seasonal activity last week
with a weekly inventory decline of about 0.7 million barrels,
leaving the nation’s propane supply at an estimated 25.2 million
barrels as of March 23, 2007. Regionally, continued strong imports
in the East Coast have begun to replenish the region’s inventories
that were severely impacted from major supply problems a month
earlier. As such, East Coast inventories reported their third
consecutive weekly gain, measuring 0.6 million barrels. The Midwest
region reported a loss last week, down 0.6 million barrels, while
Gulf Coast inventories also continued lower following a weekly
decline of 0.5 million barrels. |
|
|
Petroleum News |
After
down playing the Iranian situation for the past few weeks, this week
the market jumped in response to the Iranian capture of 15 UK
soldiers. Unconfirmed rumors than whipsawed the jittery market up
and down over the last 2 days. So far diplomatic channels are being
pursued to resolve the situation. Crude oil continues to mover
higher with talk now of $70/ barrel for prompt month NYMEX crude.
The French port workers strike did not get resolved as of Friday
morning blocking tankers that bring crude oil to refineries in that
region. At least 39 tankers are now blocked from delivering their
cargos. |
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Additional News |
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Effective March
31st, 2007, Ed Elliott will no longer be with Petrosol. Ed will
be pursuing other interests, and we wish him the best of luck in the
future. Please contact Frank or Dave at the main office if you have any
questions, or to place an order. |
This market analysis offers the best data that we have access
to at this time. It should not be
viewed as a complete analysis of these topics. Quadra Energy Trading & Petrosol International Inc.
accept no liability for loss or damage from the use of this data.
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